More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming
Identifieur interne : 005A72 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 005A71; suivant : 005A73More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming
Auteurs : Wenju Cavi [Australie] ; Matthieu Lengaigne [France] ; Simon Borlace [Australie] ; Matthew Collins [Royaume-Uni] ; Tim Cowan [Australie] ; Michael J. Mcphaden [États-Unis] ; Axel Timmermann [États-Unis] ; Scott Power [Australie] ; Josephine Brown [Australie] ; Christophe Menkes [États-Unis] ; Arona Ngari [Îles Cook] ; Emmanuel M. Vincent [France] ; Matthew J. Widlansky [États-Unis]Source :
- Nature : (London) [ 0028-0836 ] ; 2012.
Descripteurs français
- Pascal (Inist)
- Wicri :
- topic : Changement climatique.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
Abstract
The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is the Southern Hemisphere's most expansive and persistent rain band, extending from the equatorial western Pacific Ocean southeastward towards French Polynesia1,2. Owing to its strong rainfall gradient, a small displacement in the position of the SPCZ causes drastic changes to hydroclimatic conditions and the frequency of extreme weather events-such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones-experienced by vulnerable island countries in the region1,7. The SPCZ position varies from its climatological mean location with the El Nino/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO), moving a few degrees northward during moderate El Nino events and southward during La Niña events2,5,6. During strong El Niño events, however, the SPCZ undergoes an extreme swing-by up to ten degrees of latitude toward the Equator-and collapses to a more zonally oriented structure5 with commensurately severe weather impacts5,8-11. Understanding changes in the characteristics of the SPCZ in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a near doubling in the occurrences of zonal SPCZ events between the periods 1891-1990 and 1991-2090 in response to greenhouse warming, even in the absence of a consensus on how ENSO will change12-14. We estimate the increase in zonal SPCZ events from an aggregation of the climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP315 and CMIP5) multi-model database that are able to simulate such events. The change is caused by a projected enhanced equatorial warming in the Pacific16 and may lead to more frequent occurrences of extreme events across the Pacific island nations most affected by zonal SPCZ events.
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Widlansky</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="10"><s1>International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa</s1><s2>Honolulu, Hawaii 96822</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>13 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Honolulu, Hawaii 96822</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">INIST</idno><idno type="inist">12-0380192</idno><date when="2012">2012</date><idno type="stanalyst">PASCAL 12-0380192 INIST</idno><idno type="RBID">Pascal:12-0380192</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Corpus">000F79</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Curation">004F38</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/PascalFrancis/Checkpoint">000F37</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="PascalFrancis" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000F37</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0028-0836:2012:Cavi W:more:extreme:swings</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">005D72</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">005A72</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">005A72</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a">More extreme swings of the South Pacific convergence zone due to greenhouse warming</title><author><name sortKey="Cavi, Wenju" sort="Cavi, Wenju" uniqKey="Cavi W" first="Wenju" last="Cavi">Wenju Cavi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research</s1><s2>Aspendale, Victoria 3195</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>3 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lengaigne, Matthieu" sort="Lengaigne, Matthieu" uniqKey="Lengaigne M" first="Matthieu" last="Lengaigne">Matthieu Lengaigne</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), Tour 45-55-4ème étage - Piece 408, Case 100 - UPMC, 4 Place Jussieu</s1><s2>75252 Paris</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>12 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><wicri:noRegion>75252 Paris</wicri:noRegion><placeName><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement><region type="région" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Borlace, Simon" sort="Borlace, Simon" uniqKey="Borlace S" first="Simon" last="Borlace">Simon Borlace</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research</s1><s2>Aspendale, Victoria 3195</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>3 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Collins, Matthew" sort="Collins, Matthew" uniqKey="Collins M" first="Matthew" last="Collins">Matthew Collins</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>College of Engineering Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Harrison Building, Streatham Campus, University of Exeter</s1><s2>Exeter EX4 4QF</s2><s3>GBR</s3><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:noRegion>Exeter EX4 4QF</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="04"><s1>Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road</s1><s2>Exeter EX1 3PB</s2><s3>GBR</s3><sZ>4 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:noRegion>Exeter EX1 3PB</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cowan, Tim" sort="Cowan, Tim" uniqKey="Cowan T" first="Tim" last="Cowan">Tim Cowan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research</s1><s2>Aspendale, Victoria 3195</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>3 aut.</sZ><sZ>5 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Mcphaden, Michael J" sort="Mcphaden, Michael J" uniqKey="Mcphaden M" first="Michael J." last="Mcphaden">Michael J. Mcphaden</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="05"><s1>NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory</s1><s2>Seattle, Washington 98115</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>6 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Timmermann, Axel" sort="Timmermann, Axel" uniqKey="Timmermann A" first="Axel" last="Timmermann">Axel Timmermann</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="06"><s1>IPRC, Department of Oceanography, SOEST, University of Hawaii</s1><s2>Honolulu, Hawaii 96822</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>7 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Honolulu, Hawaii 96822</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Power, Scott" sort="Power, Scott" uniqKey="Power S" first="Scott" last="Power">Scott Power</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="07"><s1>Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology</s1><s2>Melbourne, Victoria 3001</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>8 aut.</sZ><sZ>9 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Melbourne, Victoria 3001</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Brown, Josephine" sort="Brown, Josephine" uniqKey="Brown J" first="Josephine" last="Brown">Josephine Brown</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="07"><s1>Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology</s1><s2>Melbourne, Victoria 3001</s2><s3>AUS</s3><sZ>8 aut.</sZ><sZ>9 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Australie</country><wicri:noRegion>Melbourne, Victoria 3001</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Menkes, Christophe" sort="Menkes, Christophe" uniqKey="Menkes C" first="Christophe" last="Menkes">Christophe Menkes</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="08"><s1>Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, 101 Promenade Roger Laroque, BP A5-98848</s1><s2>Noumea, New Caledonia</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>10 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Noumea, New Caledonia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ngari, Arona" sort="Ngari, Arona" uniqKey="Ngari A" first="Arona" last="Ngari">Arona Ngari</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="09"><s1>Meteorological Service, PO Box 127,Avarua</s1><s2>Rarotonga</s2><s3>COK</s3><sZ>11 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Îles Cook</country><wicri:noRegion>Rarotonga</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vincent, Emmanuel M" sort="Vincent, Emmanuel M" uniqKey="Vincent E" first="Emmanuel M." last="Vincent">Emmanuel M. Vincent</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), Tour 45-55-4ème étage - Piece 408, Case 100 - UPMC, 4 Place Jussieu</s1><s2>75252 Paris</s2><s3>FRA</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ><sZ>12 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>France</country><wicri:noRegion>75252 Paris</wicri:noRegion><placeName><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement><region type="région" nuts="2">Île-de-France</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Widlansky, Matthew J" sort="Widlansky, Matthew J" uniqKey="Widlansky M" first="Matthew J." last="Widlansky">Matthew J. Widlansky</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="10"><s1>International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa</s1><s2>Honolulu, Hawaii 96822</s2><s3>USA</s3><sZ>13 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>États-Unis</country><wicri:noRegion>Honolulu, Hawaii 96822</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j" type="main">Nature : (London)</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Nature : (Lond.)</title><idno type="ISSN">0028-0836</idno><imprint><date when="2012">2012</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">Nature : (London)</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">Nature : (Lond.)</title><idno type="ISSN">0028-0836</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Century 21st</term><term>Climate models</term><term>Climate prediction</term><term>Extreme event</term><term>Multimodel</term><term>Occurrence frequency</term><term>South Pacific</term><term>South Pacific convergence zone</term><term>climate change</term><term>climate warming</term><term>global change</term><term>greenhouse gas</term><term>localization</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Réchauffement climat</term><term>Gaz effet serre</term><term>Zone convergence Pacifique Sud</term><term>Changement planétaire</term><term>Siècle 21eme</term><term>Localisation</term><term>Fréquence apparition</term><term>Océan Pacifique Sud</term><term>CMIP3</term><term>CMIP5</term><term>Changement climatique</term><term>Modèle climat</term><term>Modèle multiple</term><term>Projection climatique</term><term>Evénement extrême</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Changement climatique</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is the Southern Hemisphere's most expansive and persistent rain band, extending from the equatorial western Pacific Ocean southeastward towards French Polynesia<sup>1,2</sup>. Owing to its strong rainfall gradient, a small displacement in the position of the SPCZ causes drastic changes to hydroclimatic conditions and the frequency of extreme weather events-such as droughts, floods and tropical cyclones-experienced by vulnerable island countries in the region<sup>1,7</sup>. The SPCZ position varies from its climatological mean location with the El Nino/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO), moving a few degrees northward during moderate El Nino events and southward during La Niña events<sup>2,5,6</sup>. During strong El Niño events, however, the SPCZ undergoes an extreme swing-by up to ten degrees of latitude toward the Equator-and collapses to a more zonally oriented structure<sup>5</sup> with commensurately severe weather impacts<sup>5,8-11</sup>. Understanding changes in the characteristics of the SPCZ in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we present climate modelling evidence for a near doubling in the occurrences of zonal SPCZ events between the periods 1891-1990 and 1991-2090 in response to greenhouse warming, even in the absence of a consensus on how ENSO will change<sup>12-14</sup>. We estimate the increase in zonal SPCZ events from an aggregation of the climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP3<sup>15 </sup>and CMIP5) multi-model database that are able to simulate such events. The change is caused by a projected enhanced equatorial warming in the Pacific<sup>16</sup> and may lead to more frequent occurrences of extreme events across the Pacific island nations most affected by zonal SPCZ events.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Australie</li><li>France</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li><li>États-Unis</li><li>Îles Cook</li></country><region><li>Île-de-France</li></region><settlement><li>Paris</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Cavi, Wenju" sort="Cavi, Wenju" uniqKey="Cavi W" first="Wenju" last="Cavi">Wenju Cavi</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Borlace, Simon" sort="Borlace, Simon" uniqKey="Borlace S" first="Simon" last="Borlace">Simon Borlace</name><name sortKey="Brown, Josephine" sort="Brown, Josephine" uniqKey="Brown J" first="Josephine" last="Brown">Josephine Brown</name><name sortKey="Cowan, Tim" sort="Cowan, Tim" uniqKey="Cowan T" first="Tim" last="Cowan">Tim Cowan</name><name sortKey="Power, Scott" sort="Power, Scott" uniqKey="Power S" first="Scott" last="Power">Scott Power</name></country><country name="France"><region name="Île-de-France"><name sortKey="Lengaigne, Matthieu" sort="Lengaigne, Matthieu" uniqKey="Lengaigne M" first="Matthieu" last="Lengaigne">Matthieu Lengaigne</name></region><name sortKey="Vincent, Emmanuel M" sort="Vincent, Emmanuel M" uniqKey="Vincent E" first="Emmanuel M." last="Vincent">Emmanuel M. Vincent</name></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><noRegion><name sortKey="Collins, Matthew" sort="Collins, Matthew" uniqKey="Collins M" first="Matthew" last="Collins">Matthew Collins</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Collins, Matthew" sort="Collins, Matthew" uniqKey="Collins M" first="Matthew" last="Collins">Matthew Collins</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><noRegion><name sortKey="Mcphaden, Michael J" sort="Mcphaden, Michael J" uniqKey="Mcphaden M" first="Michael J." last="Mcphaden">Michael J. Mcphaden</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Menkes, Christophe" sort="Menkes, Christophe" uniqKey="Menkes C" first="Christophe" last="Menkes">Christophe Menkes</name><name sortKey="Timmermann, Axel" sort="Timmermann, Axel" uniqKey="Timmermann A" first="Axel" last="Timmermann">Axel Timmermann</name><name sortKey="Widlansky, Matthew J" sort="Widlansky, Matthew J" uniqKey="Widlansky M" first="Matthew J." last="Widlansky">Matthew J. Widlansky</name></country><country name="Îles Cook"><noRegion><name sortKey="Ngari, Arona" sort="Ngari, Arona" uniqKey="Ngari A" first="Arona" last="Ngari">Arona Ngari</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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